Well we knew yesterday would be a tough Pick 4 but damn was it hard! Today looks just as hard with large fields. There are clear favorites in each race but if those horses falter the prices start to jump for others. I am going to spread a little more today and go back to my normal 3 in each race strategy for $40.50. A huge Pick 6 awaits punters today and this sequence could lead to a triple carryover tomorrow if there is some chaos.
To the Hillside course we go for leg one in a race for $20k optional claimers! The betting says this is a one horse race with the favorite being #9 It Is Living Water at 5/2. First off the claim for Miller with Prat in the saddle he owns 2 second place and one third on the Hillside from last year. Cutting back in distance off a third place going a mile on dirt it is hard to single this guy even though Prat/Miller are 2 of 4. Also, he last raced on Jan 7, not enough of a break in my mind. I am using but this is a beatable favorite especially on the Hillside. Gutierrez and Eurton team up on #2 Wade who tries turf for the first time today. This horse loves to fire bullets in the morning and unlike many horses when you see bullets for this dude you pay attention. A bullet work before last months win was followed up by two since. Distance and surface questions but a good price. For my third choice in here I am going to go with #7 Mr. Count On Me who won last out on dirt for a trainer/jockey 2 of 4. Ideal post position for the Hill with his speed and a great price. He was clear going 6 furlongs last so the extra half on the Hill should be fine. Only 2 races from 22 have been won by a horse priced over 10-1 so I am keeping my plays under that price.
The favorite in race 7 is #8 Wolf Man Rocket at 5/2 from Baffert with Espinoza riding. Typical Baffert workouts in the morning this is another beatable favorite who ran 8th after a 7 month break late December. Karen Headley sends out #4 Silver Spirit who is rising in class off a win last out. Headley is 2/3 maiden win last out. For our price horse I am going with #6 Doyouknowsomething with Talamo riding. He is rising in class looking for his third win in a row. He has not raced since November but trainer Avila wins 30% off breaks and a best of 95 horses workout on January 9 sticks out big time along with the 12-1 price!
In race 8 #2 Ben’s Duchess is the 5/2 favorite after a misfire in a G1 opening day. Again this is another beatable favorite today. #3 Kiss At Midnight has a case of seconditis but at least you know you will get your wagers value every time she races and she has won 2 of 3 at this distance. That last race on Dec 30 going 6 1/2 furlongs she was gaining in the stretch to run second so the added distance can only help. Does she have the killer instinct on the class rise today? 12-1 seems a gift of a price. For our third choice here I will use #7 Living The Life with Prat riding for Mandella. A horrible trip last out can be ignored especially given the 3 sharp workouts in a row going into today’s race.
In the final leg today #12 True Brilliance is the 3-1 favorite. 2nd last out the post position does him no favors. That second place win Dec 27 was off a 7 month break. Will he regress today? Again this is another beatable favorite in the sequence. Guttierrez/O’Neill/Reddam team up on #1 Etailer but no stand out works and he finished third behind the top choice last out and is stuck on the rail so I wont use. Leading jockey Gonzalez lands on #9 Reliable Source for a trainer he has won 3 of 8 for. A bad start last out saw this horse fly from the clouds 17 lengths back to get 3rd. A better ride today and this could be picture day. For a price in here Talamo rides for Knapp on #2 Tough Emblem at a big price. These two are 1 of 2 over the last 2 months with a big price win and Knapp is quietly winning 25% at the meet.
Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $40.50 with horses listed in preference.
Showvivor Pick – Yesterday we blanked when the top choice in the $8k claimer ran 4th. Today I am going with #5 Captain Carchy in race 2. Five seconds from 11 starts he rallied in the lane to just miss going 6f. Prior to that he ran 2nd at this distance.
When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.
Irish horse racing saying –
“Bíonn grásta Dé idir an dialait agus an talamh.”
“The grace of God is found between the saddle and the ground.”