Back from a nice break and ready for some great racing for the weekend. A very hard sequence awaits us today so I will be keeping the ticket small!
This is not an easy Pick 4 sequence today. The 1st leg is won by the favorite only 18% of the time with horses priced over 5-1 taking home the prize 65%. The favorite is #3 Whispering Softly with Prat riding for Motion. Off since a third place finish in November the workouts are nothing to write home about. D’Amato sends out #8 Goodlookinwife so I’m going to use in the ticket just so I can tell the wifey I did! This jockey/trainer are winning 29%. #7 Aguacate finished 4th on dirt last out but has 2 second place finishes on turf at this distance. Trainer Cerin has 4 wins, a second and 2 thirds from 9 starts at the meet. In a tough race as this that is enough of a reason to use! There is nothing else that really jumps out. If you have convictions in the next legs this could be an ALL race.
If in need of a single #2 Take It Easyplease has 3 wins and 3 seconds from the last 6 races and is dropping off a win last out, a move that this trainer has won 5 of 10 with. However, none of the wins were at this distance. #3 Secret Appeal bobbled at the start last out. Prior to that she had 2 wins and 2 seconds. A sharp workout last week and 8-1 price I will use.
In the 3rd leg #2 Sugar Buzz has 2 wins and a second from his last 3 but has not raced since November and is jumping in class. Desormeaux races 2 in here, one with his brother Kent riding and one with Talamo on. You would have to think the big bro is on the right horse, #1 Go Long who is dropping.
If this sequence was not hard enough already we end on the Hillside course! Mamma Mia! The favorite is #5 Film Freak who has run 4th three straight and hasn’t raced since October! #8 True Image is owner trained and bug boy Lopez rides (2 of 4 for Marchosky) He has two thirds on the Hillside but has been off since June. You could land on any of these horses in this race so for a price I am going to swing with #6 Lord of Chaos with Talamo riding. The Hillside course can be chaos price wise so why not. A sharp workout jumps out for the rookie.
Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $18 with horses listed in preference.
Showvivor Pick – Well I am sitting in 8th place for the wins and was done in on Sunday in the 1st race by an odds on horse that did squat! A fresh streak to begin today using No Tricks For Jack in the 4th race. Yes it is an $8k claiming race, the most unreliable condition, but most of the other horses in here raced on Jan 7, 2 weeks ago and this is not the East coast and I don’t like short turnaround horses. Trainer Diodoro reclaims off a 4th last out and drops her back to the $8k claimers where she won her last 2 prior for him. A single in all exotics.
When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.
Irish horse racing saying –
“Bíonn grásta Dé idir an dialait agus an talamh.”
“The grace of God is found between the saddle and the ground.”