Its been nothing but big, tough fields and bombs galore in the pick 4 sequence thus far in 2016 and today’s Pick4 is just as hard with a downhill race in leg 2 in a field where the lowest price horse is 3-1! We scored a bomb winner in the last leg yesterday to no avail however as the race prior saw a 47-1 shot win.
In the first leg the favorite is #9 Rockantharos who ran 3rd in her debut and put in a sharp workout last week. She was entered in a Grade 2 race on Saturday and scratched for this so her connections think very highly of her. The favorite has won this race 42% of the time from a large sample. It is hard to single in a maiden special weight race but if you had to this horse would be it. #2 Edgy Girl ran third last going a mile and the cut back today should be good.
Its slot machine time in race 2 as we get a Grade 2 on the hillside course. Anything can and does happen on this wonderful course and if you handicap just right you can often get rewarded with a fat price! The rails are at 10 feet so flying from the clouds closers need to be watched for. There’s, unfortunately not much speed in this race on paper. A huge price horse to look at is #2 My Year Is a Day who was previously trained by Motion and was picked up by D’Amato. She raced 5 furlong last out and prior to that at a mile + since moving to the States. She steadied at the start in that last race and came home strong. This distance could be ideal. #6 Shrinking Violet won this race last year and is 2 of 3 on the Hill. She’s been off since a 9th place finish in September running back East. The favorite today is #11 Ageless and her top jockey from back East made the trip here so you know she is live. She has won 3 of 4 going shorter including a G3 in July. #12 Baruta won a Grade 3 here on the hill in October under Bejarano and picks up Prat today. She totally misfired in a G1 in November going a mile. The favorite only wins this race 22% and 39% of the time a horse priced 10-1 or more has won! (UPDATE #2 scratched dang it! #10 Theatre Star ran 3rd last out on the hill in a G3 in October, put in a sharp workout this week and meets our 10-1 or more price objective for this race.)
In race 8 #5 Gutsy Ruler is certainly a horse that is due. Second and two thirds from his last 3 and a decent 6-1 price I will use. #4 Real Big Deal won going 6 1/2 in August, hit the shelf for 7 weeks and then ran third going a mile 1/16. Off since then he returned with a couple of sharp works in December. He did win off the bench going slightly longer in August. #6 W. Giles finished third behind Players Charm in his last race (Players won yesterday). He will try the gate to wire move. He may be better suited to slightly shorter and is likely to get caught in the lane but if he can hold the win is his.
In the last leg #2 Image of Joplin should love the cutback in distance. She ran gate to wire in her previous two races going a mile and 1 1/16 before weakening in stretch last out going 1 3/8. We get 6-1 morning line too! #5 Lovenseek is rising in class looking for his 4th win in a row. Gonzalez rides for O’Neill who claimed him last out and they are winning 30%. Lovenseek will be battling with our top choice for the lead early. #10 Hobbits Hero has won 4 of 5 on the SA turf course, is dropping and Bejarano/Baltas are on fire right now. If Bejarano can get this stalker over from this tough post he could swoop in the lane and steal it. Upfront speed is wining so far at this meet so that’s why I’m stacking speed on my selections.
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Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $36 with horses listed in preference.
Early Pick 4 will cost $18
When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.