Santa Anita 10-25-2015

10-25-2015

Well we were correct in singling the two mid sequence favorites yesterday as both Om and Dortmund did the job and that should have set us up for a decent pay day with our ticket having ALL in the other two legs. But as I say, how do you get the favorite to win two tough races? Bet all and the favorite will win. Both our ALL races saw the favorite win and our Pick 4 pay off returned $41, for our $49.50 bet. Ouch. It was a win and gives us our bet back for today but damn at least one of the ALL races should have returned a price!

 

Today is the last day of the shortened Fall meet at the Great Race Place. I will be posting my plays for Del Mar on twitter and on my website so be sure to check in! See you all in December.

 

We start off today’s tough sequence with an $8k claimers race – yikes! The lowest priced horse is #3 Planet Sunshine at 7/2 and 5 other horses are priced around the same! #7 Captain Corrigan put in a best of day workout on October 18th. This is the 4th start off a 2+ year break. #4 Cant Do the Danse comes out for a trainer who is winning 34% and is 42% when switching from turf to dirt. He also legs up bug boy Kennedy for the weight breakout to get every advantage today. #6 Dekko as a win, third second and win from his last 4 starts so he is always in the mix. #8 Carlsbad Mountain is racing third of a layoff for Headley who is 2 of 4 going from sprint to sprint to route. Dropping to the bottom and stretching out his is another with a legit shot in here. Tough, tough way to start the sequence.

 

The second leg does not get any easier as the favorite here too is 7/2! That is #11 Chief Of Staff from the Hollendorfer/Bejarano tandem. Dorf wins 28% beaten favorite and you can’t ignore Bejarano so we have to use but look for other coverage too. #6 China Girl Lover is looking for her third straight win on the class raise today and added distance. Bejarano defected from #9 Dream Police who has a second, win, second from her last three starts. Gutierrez takes over for Bejarano and with Baltas they are winning 43% here (3 of 7) with a big flat bet profit. In fact all the key stats are green for Baltas and Gutierrez, something you don’t see often. Baltas is also winning 32% beaten favorite. Based on stats alone this horse stands out big time!

 

If the sequence wasn’t hard enough we get the Hillside course for the third leg! The favorite here is #7 Global Magician who it seems has tried every distance this year including a 4th on the Hill in June. He ran second at a mile on turf last out and the cut back today should be perfect. Magician also races light today at 118 pounds. The apprentice Kennedy rides #8 Pathway to Yes at 117 pounds. Speaking of Pathway he has 2 wins on the Hillside. #11 Pay The Fine has speed and ran second at the distance on dirt in August. He won here in May. Front running turfers have been winning a lot in this shortened season.

 

Another wide open race completes today’s sequence. Bejarano rides the favorite #8 Cass In Stone. Second in his last two he stretches out today. The favorite has won this race 47% of the time from 60 starts. Graham rides for Glatt on #5 Travel Bound who has put in some sharp workouts in the last three weeks including a best of day work on the 13th. Graham and Glatt have connected on a big price already. As we have a free bet today I will also throw in #6 Lucky Reality who earned a best of field Beyer rating 2 back and who is dropping.

 

 

Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $45 horses listed in preference

6,4,8,3,7

9,11,6

7,11,

8,5,6

 

 

When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.

Good Luck today!