Santa Anita 10-22-2015

10-21-2015

 

We are so close for a nice payoff it hurts! There is a huge Pick 6 carryover today that should make the pools for the Pick 4 bigger as well as more money comes to play.

 

 

In the first leg today #2 Selection who has done nothing really picks up Bejarano and gets odds of 7/2 morning line after sending out for 19-1 last out. Selection did finish 3rd in March but I would want a better price that this but I have to use! I always like to look at works of horses and horses that turn in a number of sharp ones usually get my attention. One such horse doing that is #3 Shortstormcoming. 7th in his debut he put in 2 sharp works prior and since that race he has put in a best of 29 work at 4 furlongs October 3 and another sharp workout last week. An interesting prospect at 30-1 morning line odds. The favorite today is #7 Broken Up who ran third as the favorite last out after a second prior to that. Stevens rides for Mandella who is 31% maiden to maiden claiming. The thing is this race has been won ONCE from 15 starts by the favorite and horses over 5-1 have clocked a 60% win rate! An ALL bet in this race is not crazy either.

 

 

Hollendorfer sends out the 4/4 favorite in the second leg today, #6 Perfect Set. Dropping in class today off a win for a trainer who wins 27% off this move and seeking his third in a row and 4 of 5 we don’t get a whole lot of value. Pick 6 punters will use this guy as their free spot single in the sequence but I am not so sure. Perfect Set’s 2 second place finishes in his win streak have been at this distance. Bejarano rides a 10-1 shot here, the #2 Preacher Roe who won last out and is 3 of 4 since coming off the bench in July. It is very hard not to use a price as nice as this with the leading jockey picking up the mount. (UPDATE: 2 has scratched making our ticket only $12 so I will do an ALL in the first leg ticket with a couple of singles as a backup play!)

 

 

#2 Wanstead Gardens has won 2 of 3 and has been freshened two months. Always around the wire you get your bets worth and is a must use. Stevens stays on the mount even though his main man Proctor is racing one here. The other favorite here is #4 Abbey Vale from the potent Bejarano/ D’Amato who are winning 45%. Dropping in class today and second start off a 5 month layoff.

 

In the final leg we get a Hess/Desormeaux play in #3 Secret Command. These guys have been ice cold lately but Kents brother is racing a horse in here (#6 Alpine Luck) and he’s not riding him so off that reason I must use. A sharp workout last week adds to the appeal. Also 3 horses that Command beat last out have returned to win. In addition Secret Command is a late runner and will have speed to chase here today. Alpine Luck #6 loves to finish second at this track having done so 4 of 9 with two thirds as well so a must use in exotics. The favorite in this race is #10 Devil Rising who is moving down in class today. He won at this distance at Del Mar. #8 Mr. Itkins has rattled off two sharp works in a row leading into this race. Secret Command beat him in his last three but today Santiago takes the mount for Mulhall and they are 2 of 4.

 

 

Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $24 horses listed in preference

7,3,2

2,6

2,4

3,6,10,8

 

 

Back up Pick 4 costs $16

ALL

6

2

3,6,10,8

 

 

Pick 6

2,8

3,6

7,3

6

2,4

3

 

When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.

 

Good Luck today!