Santa Anita 10-17-2015

10-17-2015

The shortest price in all legs today of the Pick 4 is 7/2 so some bombs are a must and the payouts will likely be very nice. It is also Guaranteed for $500k today so I am going to go a little higher in my ticket!

 

In the first leg today Bejarano rides #3 Rockin Robin who won last out for this jockey against two next out winners. Rising in class today but we get the top jockey and a 6-1 price. This jockey/trainer win 27% for a positive ROI. Bejarano previously rode the favorite in here today 3 of the last 4 races, #7 The Gomper for the Dorf. Mike Smith rides today and I am not using. #9 Image of Joplin won last out going longer and cuts back slightly today. He has been racing at over a mile each of the last 4 and the cut back today with the apprentice weight break could see a possible gate to wire move. Front runners have been holding on at this meet. That seems to be the strategy today at 8-1. Look, the favorite in this race is a 7/2 horse that has burned up money this summer and whom the top jockey decides not to ride in a field where the second choice is 9-2 and the highest prices are 12-1. Translation – anyone can win this race so lets aim for some prices! #10 Shake Things up is looking for win #3 after winning at Belmont in June, being claimed by Miller and shipped to Del Mar for a win in September in gate to wire fashion. This could complicate our bet as our other price horse is a front runner too but I am going with the stats here.

 

 

The second leg is another wide open race with the favorite only 7/2. The favorite wins said race only 25% and horses over 10-1 have come home 35%! I like #8 Sacred Ovation who won last out after a second place finish prior. 3rd start off a layoff and running great we must use. #6 Guy Code meets our odds criteria for this race off a win last out at Los Al. Three sharp workouts in a row since that race tell me he is coiled for a big race today despite the class raise. #7 Seeking the Sheriff absolutely LOVES this track with 7 wins and two places from 13 starts. 2nd start off a layoff with a couple of sharp workouts I think we have to use. #5 Skelton Pass is the fav today and was edged for second in his last so he may have bounced off prior races implying potential today. I didn’t want to go big on the ticket today but I think we have to use him here.

 

I have a love/hate relationship with #7 Paulina’s Love in the 8th race. I use her she misses and I don’t and she wins big. She comes in today off a two month break and shortens up but I will say except for her last race she was coming into form nicely. #4 Belle Hill invades from Emerald Downs and brings her jockey with her seeking her 4th straight win and 5 of 6. Bullet works all over her form card including one on October 10th up at Golden Gate how do you not use especially at 8-1? I usually prefer to see at least a work or two at the home track and she is trying turf for the first time today but they didn’t ship here to Santa Anita for a vacation and she has turf in her blood. Bejarano rides #9 Singing Kitty who is moving up in class today off a win last out. Smith rides number 3 Dreamologist who is also rising in class. It usually pays to play Smith in big purse races but I am not after some bad runs in the last couple of months.

 

 

What a way to end the sequence today! We get a maiden claimer with no clear standouts again. #7 Mint Julep Taffy is the second choice today dropping for Molly Pearson who is 2 of 6 on this move. The favorite today is from the Desormeaux brothers #1 Exactamente, a horse that has done nothing in four starts but takes a substantial drop today. #9 Of Course It Is adds blinkers for D’Amato. She was boxed in at the start, fell back far, re-rallied going into the turn but was then boxed again and gave up. Blinkers off, outside post I will use.

 

 

Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $54 horses listed in preference

3,9,10

8,6,7,5

4,7,9

7,1,9

 

 

 

Today’s Best Bet is in race #3 Gold Chaser. Yes I am looking for a price on this horse who was 5 wide into the stretch last time out against Sacred Ovation racing later today. 3rd two straight a big weight break today could be key and a sharp workout last week is nice to see.

 

When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.

 

Good Luck today!