Del Mar 10-31-2015 Plus Breeders Cup Pick 4

10-31-2015

How do you get the favorite to win a race? We have pondered this very question over the last several weeks with my many ALL bets. Each and every time the answer has come back – have me bet ALL is how! We nailed the pick 4 yesterday and were a lock for it going into the last race where we had hit the ALL button. Payouts varied from $92 to $800+ but alas Bejarano rode to victory. Both the expensive ticked and the cheap ticket had the winner so everyone was able to win, and triple their bankroll. Many of the top jockeys are back East today so jockey/trainer angles may be skewed.

I did hit the late pick4 at the Breeders Cup with the $27 bet returning a nice $420 but I only included the early Pick 4 in the write-up. Sorry!

 

My Breeders Cup Pick 4 starting in race 8 that cost $30 is:

3,7,9,12

3,7,9,12,13

1

3,4,5

 

In race 11 a trifecta box 3,4,5 and superfecta box 3,4,5,6

 

The Pick4 today starts in race #6 where the favorite is a recent claim by Miller, the #2 Canadian Exchange. A sharp workout for a hot jockey recently and a train who wins 23% of his maiden claimers I will use but its by no mean a single. Blinkers go on today after a wide trip last. This trainer/jockey have connected on 40% of their horses in the last two months going 4 of 10. #8 Bert’s Baby does not having that winning instinct and settles for second or third most of the time. Today her connections half her claiming price and on that note we must consider.

 

We go a mile on turf in the second leg with #6 Ground Rules the 5/2 favorite. A sharp workout last week she ran second earlier this month and before that won here at Del Mar. 1st time turf today though. #3 Perfectly Majestic won last out here at Del Mar as well for Hess who wins 34% of his no-graded stakes races. #2 Crittenden has raced in Grade 1-3 races over his last three with a 4th, 5th and second place finish. Dropping in class today as well. Bejarano rode him last out here in September but is at the Breeders Cup. If he was here this horse would be the favorite. #1 Acceptance has been away since a misfire in January after winning her first three races prior to that. Trainer Black does not race many but his ROI across multiple categories are impressively big and this jockey is usually aboard those bombs. He is 2 of 4 off long breaks for a positive ROI of 26! Jockey/trainer are 2 of 5 as well. Stakes races like this tend to produce unusual results!

 

If you need a free spot to play more in other legs #1 Finest City seems a good choice. She shortens up today. #5 Pleasant as Pie won at a big price here in September then ran second as the favorite last out at Santa Anita.

 

The last leg is a mile on turf for maidens. O Neill sends out a firster from Ireland today, #5 Jeremy’s Legacy and they have not faired too well on the West Coast over the last year plus. However, she last raced at Dundalk, a race track a few miles from where I grew up in Ireland so for sentimental reasons, plus the fact O Neill is red hot lately, I will use at a nice 6-1 price, hopefully higher come post time! The 5/2 favorite is #2 Two Steps of Glory with bug boy riding came home second on the Hill earlier this month and will use similar tactics today – gun and hold on. Turf races have seen this strategy work lately. #3 Sheeza Milky Way raced against Songbird last out at Santa Anita and Songbird destroyed them today at the Breeders Cup so she is a strong look here.

 

Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $12 horses listed in preference

2,8

2,6,3,1

1

5,2,3

 

When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.

Good Luck today!