Del Mar 10-29-2015

10-29-2015

We are back at Del Mar for the next four weeks and hopefully we see some more form full results after a summer of bombs here! The sequence today does not look easy!

 

I will have bonus bets for the Breeders Cup Friday and Saturday so be sure to check the website!

 

The sequence starts today in race 5, a mile on the turf. The morning line favorite is #6 John’s Success at 5/2 followed by Bejarano ridden Rocking Robin, the #5. Robin weakened last out at Santa Anita on October 17th but did win and come third from two races here in August. John’s Success put in a sharp workout here last week, is dropping in class and is coming in second off a layoff. The favorite has won this race only twice from 11 starts and both the top choices seem very beatable. The big question is do we use them so swing for the fences with prices? #8 Shake Things Up won off a 3 month break in September here at this distance and then bounced two weeks ago at Santa Anita. Third off the layoff at a good price I will use.

 

Race 6 is a 7 furlong dirt stakes race with Bejarano riding the favorite #10 Patriotic Diamond. She stretches out again after a win last out here after coming in second prior. Rested two months with 4 works at Santa Anita one has to imagine they were pointing towards this race. She is carrying the top weight in here though and running longer. #4 Obey won two in a row before bobbling at the start last our here. She has trained well since including a sharp work last week and we get 8-1. #5 Dragon Flower is moving up today after two wins and two seconds from 4 starts. Her trainer is 3 of 6 with two year olds this year and you get a 15-1 price. A must use I think in exotic bets with this price. Eurton and Talamo team up on #7 Pacific Heat who won gate to wire in her debut and Eurton horses usually don’t do that. Potential for a bounce off that effort but this trainer does race his horses into race condition. Bejarano rode last out and defected. #14 Just Google Me has two wins, two seconds from four starts including three stakes.

 

The favorite in race 7 is #2 Salsita. She bobbled at the start in her last race but did make a comeback. She won at this distance in the summer here. #4 Vanlose Stairway has run third in her last three so in trifecta’s and super’s she a must use. #8 Show Stealer is interesting. She came in second and third in two tries here in the summer with Stevens riding and today she gets red hot rookie Kennedy and his huge weight break. 112 pounds to 121-124 pounds for all the top choices. Sherman and bug boy have connected on 2 price horses recently. Bejarano lands on #10 Tiz A Kiss who has mixed it up with our bomb Show Stealer except Show is 10-1 and Tiz is 7/2. Baltas and Bejarano are 4 of 10 recently but I have to wonder if Bejarano was riding Show Stealer would she be 7/2 instead of 10-1? Also keep in mind that Show was a Proctor horse who Stevens chose to stick around on after the claim and rode to 2nd and 3rd here at Del Mar. Sure does sound like I should single her! The favorite has won this race 4 of 20 times and a horse over 10-1 has won 4 of 20!

 

We get a maiden claiming for the last race today going a mile on dirt. #3 Dirt in Your Face is dropping huge today for a trainer who wins 42% (4 of 7) on such a drop. A sharp workout last week adds to the appeal and he ran second at this same level here this summer. Bejarano rides the favorite in here #5 Alltheleavesrbrown who has burned up plenty of money. A big jockey upgrade but is it enough?

 

Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $30 horses listed in preference

8,6,5

10,4,5,14,7

8,2

3,5

 

When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.

Good Luck today!