Del Mar 07-19-2015

07-18-2015

 

Despite the heaviest rainfall in San Diego in 113 years we somehow managed, thru all the scratches, to make it to the last leg of the Pick 4 with the odds on favorite twice on our ticket along with the second favorite but the fun ended as the fav pulled up and our other choice ran out of gas. Turf selections today depend on this crazy weather we are having here in San Diego so there is a chance turf races get moved to dirt.

 

 

The late pick 4 begins in the seventh race today. The ship n win horses have not faired well so far at Del Mar but that should change. #2 Guns Loaded tries for that bonus money today for a trainer who wins 19% last win. Guns posted a sharp workout prior to that win and posted a sharp workout last week. Baffert and Garcia bring us the sharp #6 Turnover who won last month off almost a year break since last winning at Del Mar. Three sharp workouts in a row may be signaling go time. A possible single if you need room in other legs. The favorite is #4 Cherubim who failed as a favorite last out. This race has only been run 6 times so the sample is small but horses 5-1 or more have won 4 of the 6. For a price I am going with the hot jockey Talamo on #3 Snuggley Bear at 15-1.  2nd start off a layoff this is about win Snuggley has turned in wins in the past and owns at win at Del Mar.

 

#2 Sunset Glow is trying for ship n win money with Stevens in the reigns. Last summer at Del Mar Glow won both races. Beaten last out for a trainer who wins 28% off a beaten favorite Glow also turned in a fast workout before shipping here on July 13. Bejarano had choices in this race and goes with #7 Her Emmynency who can run on any surface, a good thing if they take this race off turf today. She has won 3 of 4 races.

 

Hess and Desormeaux team up on #2 Secret Command. These too were deadly last summer at Del Mar. First start off another layoff though makes a single impossible. Talamo is the meet leader so far, a GREAT thing to see! As such we need to watch his mounts closely. He rides #3 Rebel Rebel here, another ship n win horse who’s trainer won two on Friday and posted a sharp workout here at Del Mar last week. At 8-1 morning line I really like this horse. #9 Public Policy drops today after a couple of third place finishes and tries Irish jockey Graham this time. Sadler wins 20% 3rd off a layoff.

 

In the final leg Baffert and Garcia have the morning line favorite in #6 Air Pocket who has yet to win in 6 starts. Baffert wins 33% when his horse was a beaten favorite last out. #10 Pretentious finished behind Air in that last race and ahead of him in the race before. Both of them lost to Papacoolpappacool who was awful on Friday making both these guys a tough call in my book. Bejarano rides #8 Second Summer who has not raced since December. Sharp works in May and a steady work pattern since they likely had their eyes on racing here at Del Mar and a 5-1 price with Bejarano is attractive.

 

Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $36 with horses listed in preference

2,6,4,3

2,7

2,3,9

6,10,8

 

No best bet today but I have 2 live longshots. #3 Rebel Rebel in race 9 that I discussed above and in the 6th race #6 Dreamy Art could upset the hyped horses from Baffert and Hollendorfer. Dreamy posted a sharp workout last week and daddy wins 38% with 1st time starters, a very high win rate.

 

Pick 5

1,5,3

2,4

1,2 (8 longshot chance)

7,11

1,8,14

 

When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.