Del Mar 07-18-2015

07-18-2015

 

We whiffed again yesterday but you know its not something we can cry about especially opening week at Del Mar with big prices! We would have had the Hess winner yesterday, especially as I have said to watch this trainer, but when main man Desormeaux did not ride I did not use. Talamo rode and of course at Del Mar that means the horse wins! Talamo is heating up (long overdue) so watch him. The pays in the Pick 4 and Pick 5 continue to be very nice. Let’s see if we can get a piece today!

 

In the first leg today in race 7 the Desormeaux brothers bring us #3 Get Long who posted a fast workout last week. First time starter #5 Irish is one you know I will use! Dollase is 28% with babies and this horse has been churning out sharp workouts over the last two months (5 bullets from 10 workouts). I especially like that its not being hyped like some babies yesterday that couldn’t even finish in the money. Baltas legs up Bejarano on #1 Gavin Streetsense who posted a sharp workout last week if you want extra coverage.

 

The 7/2 favorite in race 8 is #3 Elektrum from trainer Sadler with Espinoza finally trying. Smith rode Elektrum since arriving in the States to two seconds and a win before Prat took over last out, losing by only a length. Sadler puts his main jockey on to see if they can get the win.  If #4  Theatre Star from trainer Proctor had Steven’s riding it would be a slam dunk must use horse following a win and a second at this distance over the last two races. Stevens chose’s to stick with #8 Famous Alice who was trained by Proctor last and was a stable mate of Theatre Star a couple of weeks ago. Alice drops from a G2 for today’s race. #1 She’s Flush has two wins and two seconds in the last four races and a 20-1 price so how do we ignore? A sharp workout as well a week ago! Could this be Irish jockey Graham’s first Del Mar win? This is a tough race to get out of.

 

Race 9 is won by the favorite 31% of the time but 44% of the winners are priced 5-1 or greater. #4 Patitude is an invader from Churchill Downs who attracts Bejarano. Moving up in class today at any other track I would wait and see but opening week at Del Mar I have to use especially with the Ship n Win program here at Del Mar. Trainer Miller is on fire early this meet and enters #3 Stealth Drone but Bejarano chose to go with another after riding this horse over the last two races. Instead I will use #8 Dr. Fager’s Gal who was second last out. For the price horse #1 Lotta Attitude is interesting. 3rd last out but the previous two times she raced at this distance in January and February she won and she meets our high odds win angle for this race.

 

The morning line favorite in the last leg today is #7 The Gomper from the Jerry and Bejarano tandem. I have not been impressed with this horse however. We have to use #10 Ground Rules who scratched from the Oceanside Stakes on opening day to ride here with Desormeaux in the reigns. Moving up in class and first time turf are negatives but siblings have won 12% first time turf. #5 Zinvor may find today’s distance perfect and is dropping for a trainer who wins 20% when beaten as a favorite. Zinvor lost to Soul Driver who won on opening day.

 

Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $54 with horses listed in preference

3,5,1

8,1,3,4

4,8,1

10,7,5

 

Alternative Pick 4 that costs $24

3,5

8,1,3,4

4,8,1

10,5

 

The Best bet today is #4 Midnight Storm who would be looking at his 5th straight win if not for a bobble in his last start at the gate. Storm still managed to finish second in that race. In race 6 #6 Frat Boy rises in class for trainer Avila who enters this horse for the ship n win program. Avila is 33% first off the claim and 33% off a layoff and 20% shipping.

 

Pick 5

4,1

1,4

1,5,7

3

2,6

 

When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections

2 Comments on Del Mar 07-18-2015

  1. Ken Michealson // July 18, 2015 at 5:42 pm //

    Love your picks !! I just wish they were posted just a little bit earlier as we in Arizona can’t bet on line so I stop before work at the local off track site. If the post isen’t up by 9:30am I have to leave and miss those days bets thx again for the California pk 4 & 5’s

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