Santa Anita 06-28-2015

I was alive into the final race yesterday on one ticket with a very nice payoff awaiting on the Hillside course. Unfortunately, our outsider was not the one who won! I was right in thinking ALL in that leg but our single in the big race Catch A Flight caught nada! We also had 4/5 on the Pick 5 too! So close yet… Today is the final day of Santa Anita before a brief stint at Los Al and the summer meet at Del Mar. I hope you have found my analysis profitable this season!

 

I will continue to post my free picks and analysis for the Los Al and Del Mar meets on my website www.californiapick4.com starting next week so be sure to stop on by!

 

 

In the first leg in race 7 the #1 Designated Royalty for the Headley/Maldonado due winning 42% jumps out. She was third in her debut but did not show a lot of speed. However, she was well bet and has a race under her belt now. #9 Matter of Luck (which is all us punters need!) is dropping after a race where the 1-2-3 finishers came back to win indicating a very live race. She was 12th that day after falling asleep in the starters gate so the drop and switch to dirt can only help. Her trainer has an 80% win rate Maiden to Maiden Claiming. The question with #7 Cattle Queen, the morning line favorite, is whether the cut back in distance will hinder or help. She came on strong in her last race to finish 3rd so if she is to have a shot today Gryder needs to start the move much sooner.

 

 

In race #8 Big John B is a must use but as a single I’m not as sure. Bejarano and D’Amato are 2 of 3 and D’Amato, while he has cooled off somewhat in the last couple of weeks, is winning 28%. Big John B plunges in class after a very dull effort in a G3. He is also carrying 130 pounds, one of the highest weights I have seen this season and its a 1 1/4 mile race! #5 Persuasive Paul is a horse I bet every time and I have been rewarded with two straight wins! He is moving up in class though and Bejarano choose to ride Big John (can you blame him?) BUT Paul won carrying 129 pounds last out and gets a 4 pound break today and Espinoza rides. Hollendorfer has been ice cold at this meeting but he has been tearing it up at Golden Gate. He ships #7 Salah Champ in from GG for this race, a horse who has been 1st or second 10 of 11 starts. With stats like that one must use.

 

 

In the 9th race #2 Easter Lillian stands out to me. She opened up a huge lead and still hung on to a 3+ length victory. This was a very live race as the 2nd and 4th place horses came back to win. Despite that she is not the favorite here and is giving 5-1! Also, today’s distance is a half furlong less so Van Dyke will likely try to wire again. Bejarano jumps back on the fav #3 Sweet Silver who he rode to victory last time he was on. #9 Gold Journey finally won last out after 9 straight 4th place or better finishes. She gives you a run for your money every time so I will use her too.

 

 

In the final leg today the favorite drew a horrid post, the #12 Ya Ya Girl. Bejarano rides but it is not an easy post to win at this distance. This race has been won by a horse 5-1 or more 54% of the time. Baze has previously ridden a couple of horses in this race so who he rides here today speaks volumes. He sticks with #13 Katy Drama who got caught on the wire at this distance last out. The outside post does not help so like Ya Ya she will be gunning early. With this in mind we need a closer for a price and #1 Luvuryan gives us that. The rail has a 19% win rate at this distance and Luvuryan put in a sharp workout last week. She is also dropping in class. Flying down the stretch to win on the wire and complete the Pick 4 for us would be a great way to end the meet!

 

 

Today’s Pick 4 will cost $40.50

1,7,9

2,5,6

2,3,9

1,12,13

 

 

Today’s Best Bet is in race 5, the #2 I Don’t Care Who from the Sadler barn with Espinoza riding and double jumping today, a strong sign of confidence. #8 Iron Fist from Hollendorfer and Smith is the morning line favorite but I think #2 will get the job done today. A sharp 6 furlong workout last week for a red hot jockey/trainer tandem adds to the appeal.

 

 

Pick 5

1,3,4

3,4,5

4,5,7

2,6

2,8

 

 

Trifecta boxes using the top 3 selections from each race and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form (for the price!).