Santa Anita 5/23/2015

05-23-2015

 

 

This is an extremely hard Pick 4 sequence today. You could spend a lot of money on your bet today and still come away empty handed. My strategy, which I haven’t gone over in a while, is to limit my Pick 4 bet to under $50, specifically $40.50 or less. More recently I have been limiting it to $24-36 based on how tough the races have been. The logic behind this is if we chalk out with 4 favorites typically the lowest payout you are going to see is $40-50. My standard practice is three horses in each race. Ideally I like to select at least one favorite and then an outsider that appears live. Using this approach I have selected some very large Pick 4 wins over the years while minimizing loses looking to score the big ones! Let’s get it today!

 

 

The Pick 4 starts off in race 7 today, a $200k mile and sixteenth dirt race. The betting shows little difference between the top four choices in this race. You know I am going to go with Mike Smith on #5 Ashley’s Sassy. She has let me down the last couple of times I have backed her but it is rare for Smith to go on a cold streak in big money races so today may be the day. #2 Thermodynamics is a must use off several good workouts recently plus a win and second in her last two races. Trainer D’Amato races two in here and that makes it a tough call. The #1 Barbara Beatrice won her first race on turf last out but moves back to dirt here and jumps in class. Interesting thing is it looks like D’Amato owns this horse too. I was going to not use but this makes it interesting.  The jockey/trainer combo are 4 of 9 as well and these are stats I like to look for. The other D’Amato entry is the favorite #3 Sheer Pleasure who won her last romping from behind. That will suit her well today at this added distance. Baze and D’Amato are 2 for 3. This is a VERY tough sequence to get out of today. The race has only been run 5 times so far but 2 of 5 winners have been over 10-1.

 

 

In race 8 Bejarano jumps on the favorite #5 Grazen Sky who won on turf up North after a second place finish on dirt here in April. #4 Zinvoir is 2 for 2 with good workouts so this is another must use in here. #2 Richard’s Boy has won 4 of 5 starts and runs his longest race ever today. Even #9 Rocko’s Wheels has a shot here with Talamo riding although he is making his first turf start. Another tough, tough race!

 

 

Race nine brings a possibly single if you are brave, the #9 Motown Men who romped to a 7+ length victory in an NX2 and then finished third in a G3. A very fast workout since and dropping today if you wanted a single this is it. I am going to use the #10 Joy Boy in here. A fresh face which usually I like to wait and see on, he is 2 for 5 with Talamo riding (a theme on our picks today!)

 

 

In the final leg the morning line favorite Ace Deuce is 7/2 after four 2nd place finishes. He shortens today and gets a nice weight allowance and may finally get the win. Again another tough race but I am only go to go two-deep. I am going shopping for a price here and using Talamo on #10 Brimstoned. He finished 5th in his last here but lost by only two lengths after flying from the sky in the stretch. The added distance could be it today and Talamo riding adds to the appeal.

 

 

My ticket will cost $32

1,2,3,5

2,4,5,9

9,10

5,10

 

Our best yesterday Addendum bet didn’t have enough gas in the tank to get the win, coming in second.  Today’s Best Bet offers little in betting value in Race #3, Sunday Rules who is seeking her 4th straight win. D’Amato and Baze are both red-hot right now.

 

As a bonus here is a Pick 5 for today that costs $18.

2,3,6

2,5

5 (add 3 if you want to bet against the fav with a bomb)

3,7

2,3,11