Santa Anita 05/17/2015

05-17-2015

 

3 out of 4 again! We got the winner in leg 1. In the second leg Big Break romped home to the victory at 15-1, a horse I was giddy we were getting 15-1 on! Leg 3 did us in as a 27-1 shot put away my other favorite outsider. Coming down the stretch it looked like we had it but the big outsider refused to give in. So close yet so far. As a consolidation I got a $281 superfecta for 10c but still! There are many options on today’s sequence with a couple of potential singles. I may try a few different tickets today and mix things up a bit.

 

Today’s first leg begins on the hillside course with a probable single for many, the #2 Forest Chatter. 3 for 3 on the hill and Mike Smith is riding. Mike was blanked on big race day yesterday, something you rarely see. He has two rides today so pay close attention. Forest is one of the few horses doing well rising in class on the hillside, something I usually don’t like seeing and it makes it tough to single. For a price in here I like the #8 Horizintalyspeakin. He cuts back in distance today after a second in his last and a win prior on turf. He will try a gate-to-wire move here and could pull it off. An unknown trainer claimed him last out and attracts Garcia for the ride. Hmmmmmm! He will also give Forest something to chase down in the stretch. #6 U S Citizen drops back to the level he scored 2 seconds and a win at with Desormeaux in the saddle on the hill.

 

Race 7 is a 5 1/2 furlong race with a lot of Los Al night time racers. The clear standout, at least on paper, is the number 9 Peacenik. A 1st and then 3rd at the 10k level is drop down to this 8k level today. Miller wins 54% of the time on a drop like this. Sharp workout, hot trainer/jockey tandem and a t win in March at this distance, if this is not a single I don’t know what to say! The favorite also wins this race 39% of the time with a positive, albeit slight, ROI.

 

We go back to the hill on leg 3. #2 Labour is a 1st time runner from Argentina and I rarely like to bet these first out BUT this is Mike’s only other ride today per what I said in the intro. #8 Somethings Unusual scratched from Thursday’s race when it was moved to dirt. He has run second twice on the Hill. Formally Wild the #3 won in his debut on the Hill in March and has been working lights out since. Pedroza jumps back on #6 Tosheen who is won last time riding.

 

To end today’s sequence we get another 5 1/2 furlong maiden special weight sprint. Baffert and Garcia team up on #11 Lamu, son of the 2013 Kentucky Derby winning Malibu Moon. Hollendorfer enters another son of Malibu Moon here, the #4 Mr. Pucci with Bejarnano riding who has posted two sharp workouts in a row. It is really hard to trust these first time runners. Are they out for a spin or is this the real deal? In the last week we have seen a few debuting horses called “the greatest thing since sliced bread!” suck up tote money and do nothing come race time. As such, I think we need to use some “veterans” as well. Talamo is riding #7 Hook ‘Em Kurt who turned in a sharp 3 furlong workout last week. 1st time blinkers for a trainer who wins 26% with this move. The other one to look at here is #6 Bellamy Concerto. In the last week Prat and Mandella have won 4 of 9 with 2 seconds so they are potent right now.

 

 

For my Best Bet today I am going to go with my single in the late Pick 4 race 7, Peacenik. I also like #8 L X Sunrise in the 3rd race for a single.  Too bad we cannot do cross race doubles yet.

 

 

My first ticket will cost $24

2/6/8

9

2/3/6/8

4/6/7/11

 

Alternative ticket going with experience costs $8

2/8

9

3/5/6/8

6/7