When there is a 16-1 winner in the last leg with a 48-1 horse in second place and a Pick 6 carryover need I say more? Today we get a monster $750k Guaranteed Pick 4 pool, lets see if we can get some of it!
In the first leg it is #1 Dormund’s race to win or lose. He is a single for me. If you want to get creative (and usually I do in big races but today I’m not) you could consider the other Baffert entry #2 One Lucky Dame and #5 Prospect Park with Kent riding. I would lean on Prospect Park who is always right there.
Because of my single in the last race I can go much deeper than usual in the next three legs. In race 9 I am going 5 deep as there are a few horses in here who I like and with our hopeful single win in the last race we are now looking for prices in the next legs! My man Kent rides #3 Miss Boom Boom (I chose not to add Kent’s horse yesterday and it cost me the pick 4). Miss Boom Boom is looking for win number three but is moving up in class. A great 12-1 price tempts me though! #4 Entrechat is also moving up in class after a win and second and may challenge for post time favorite with #8 Prize Exhibit. A bad ride in her last and still able to win going away she is a must use today. We are on turf and there are Irish horses riding, my weakness, so I am also going to use #10 Spirit Of Xian. Talamo rides and it was this time last year that he started to heat up and he is a beast on turf. In her debut last month she finished third despite a bad trip. Keep in mind Prize Exhibit had a troubled start in her US debut and then won her second race.
In race 10 I am going 4 deep. #1 Long Hot Summer is the favorite for a hot trainer over the last 2 weeks (4-1-2 from 10 starts). She was second in her last off a layoff but this is her first start on dirt. You know I am going to use #4 Ashley’s Sassy with Mike Smith riding and a HOT trainer who has 3 wins and 2 seconds from 6 starts over the last 14 days. A sharp workout, 8-1 price and big jockey upgrade. Bejarano rides #10 Jenna’s faith who won her debut despite a troubled trip. Jumping in class but Bejarano took the ride. Finally #11 Grand Yodeler has won 3 of 5 racing against others horses in here. Bejarano rode last time but a different jockey has ridden this horse each of its 5 previous races and the horse has performed.
In the final leg I am also going 4 deep although you could single the #4 Winning Prize who moves down in class, has the leading rider and is making his second start off a 7 month layoff. #7 Pure Tactics for Desormeaux and O’ Neill who are winning 29% won his last race after a layoff and moves to a mile distance (he won like beast at this distance here in October). #10 County Lineman has three thirds and a second from his last four starts so you know you get yours money’s worth betting on him. Maybe today is picture day? I am also going to use #12 Moulin de Mougin with Smith on board. He has not raced in 6 months and gets an outside post that have a low win percentage BUT he drops in class and the outside post with Mike Smith who likes to run his horses from far back is not as bad.
Today’s Pick 4 bet will cost $40
An upset special will cost $10
Good luck today!