Santa Anita 03-28-2015

03-28-2015

 

 

Well for the 4th day in a row (and 51st time this season) we had a price horse going into the last leg of the pick 4 only to have our horse yet again come in second. For today’s selection I am going to name my site California pick 4 out of 5 so perhaps we can actually finally get the 4 winners! At least we are making it to the last race each time to get entertainment value but damn, how about some sugar, honey, after so many big teases this season! Be sure to follow me on twitter for changes if scratches occur! My late addition yesterday was the winner in the 1st leg.

 

 

The first leg today in race 6 is no easy affair. This particular race is won by a horse 10-1 or higher 40% of the time, one of the highest outsider win rates I have seen for a race!  The favorite wins 30% of the time and a horse 5-1 or less wins 50%! So today its either bomb or favorite. If you have strong convictions on horses running in other races in this sequence hitting the ALL button is not crazy! Going strictly off names because I have had a few beers now after getting 3/4 again Friday #1 Chasintheaces jumps out. I actually chased my pocket aces in the World Series of Poker a couple of years back to lose with my trip aces to a guy chasing a straight! Lo and behold its also a Baffert/Garcia horse 2nd off a layoff. Baffert is 4 for 11 in the last 14 days. A horse that really jumps out at me is #6 Kill Shot. It is pretty damn rare to see a horse rattle off four straight sharp workouts. 2 of those fast workouts were right before the last race BUT he bobbled at the start giving an excuse. At 12-1 morning line he also meets our criteria for the 40% bomb win rate here. I like #7 Frensham. I’ve bet this horse many times and he is the morning line favorite so an easy selection. Leading jockey Bejarano took Friday off after his spill on Thursday with eyes on the racing today. As such we must look at who he is riding in the late Pick 4 and he lands on #10 Venetian Mask who posted a sharp workout this week.

 

 

In race #7 three out of four horses that win are 5-1 or less. The favorite today is #8 Grandiose Tactics who could be a single for many of you in the Pick 4. She won and then was second in her most 2 recent starts. Sadler is also 28% off a claim. We also have an invader who has done well (4 of 5) at Golden Gate and races on turf today (she has a win and a second on turf up north), the #4 Handfull. She also had a fast workout last week. I also have to throw in #1, the paddy from Ireland, Soresca. She has finished ahead of or behind most of the horse in here in past races.

 

 

Race 8 the betting says its a 2 horse race, # 4 Bronzo or #8 Sky Kingdom. #5 Arlington House is a quandary. Bejarano rode to his last two victories but Baze rides today. Granted he did chose to ride Rousing Sermon, who if didn’t scratch would be my single here. You would have to think Bejarano could have still gotten the ride back but it may have just not wanted to take the ride from Baze. I’m over-thinking again so I will use! The logical horses have not been winning races like this recently too.  Arlington has never run this far which is another negative. Even though he has been off for four months I think this is Sky Kingdoms race. He has ample experience at this distance or longer and posted a sharp workout this week. It may be my downfall but I am not going to use #4 Bronzo. He has done terrible at this track and yes he rain against the likes of Shared Belief etc but I will stick with the 2 horses that are winning or have won here.

 

 

The final leg today is a mile race on turf that only has a 21% favorite win rate. 50% of the time the winner is priced 5-1 or higher, 21% of the time 10-1 or greater! Bejarano takes the call on 8-1 shot #9 Selection despite finishing 7th in both starts. This trainer is 50% 1st off the claim too, blinkers are added, and the horse has posted two sharp workouts in the last 2 weeks so now we know why Bejarano is interested plus we get a price. If #11 Solomon Northup  gets in off the AE he is a must use. #7 Action Hero looked interesting till I saw Stevens was not riding for Procter so pass. A crazy bomb in this race is #5 Upbeat Tempo. He is the only horse priced above 10-1 BUT did turn in a sharp workout last week and Karla has a habit or riding bombs to victory every once in a while. If you want to take a shot on 1st timer #1 Volume you get a hot trainer over the last 2 weeks for a horse breed for turf and a post that wins 21%.

 

 

Good luck today!

 

Today’s Pick 4 bet will cost $36

1,6,7,10

1,4,8

5,8

5,9,11