For my sisters wedding on Saturday I went with Ashleylovessugar in the big race and she won but it was a 3/4 day for us with a loss in the final leg. Fighting a good hangover on Sunday I sent my selection out a little late and yet again it was a 3/4 day. Seriously it is getting old! I will say that when you come this close so many times in the Pick 4 it is only a matter of time before the “big one” hits and makes all the frustration worth it! This is the life of a handicapper! Let me see if today will be the day!
The first leg is a 6 furlong race with #4 Brother Soldier the favorite. Always in the mix but so far he has been camera shy. His trainer is heating up though and wins 27% of the time after been beaten as favorite. I like #2 Market Notes. He finished 4th in his first race since May and gets Bejarano on board at 10-1, pretty unusually for this jockey. I like the horse and Bejarano riding for a price – I’m using! Also to add to the appeal trainer Conlon had him when he was racing at his best in late 2013. #2 Surfing Angel has a win and 2 seconds from three starts.
In race 6 Baffert and Garcia team up on #4 Five Palms who has not raced since December of 2013. The thing is this horse may need a race or may romp to victory. That’s the issue with Baffert horses off a layoff. We have to use but not alone! #2 Solid Wager is rising in class after winning a 40k optional claimer last out. Two sharp workouts this month including one last week could mean go time.
We get the Hillside in race #7 with Bejarano riding the favorite #7 Gouyen. She is rising in class which is something I don’t like on the hillside. A single for some but this race is won by a horse 5-1 or higher 44% of the time. Also trainer Glatt is racing another horse in here #4 Little But Lucky with Talamo. #4 adds blinkers and had a sharp workout last week but its coming in off a 9 month break. Keep in mind Gouyen won off a 10 month break for Glatt in her last. #2 Discatsonthesquare has a second and third on the Hill, getting swallowed late each time after leading. She won a 5 1/2 furlong sprint with today’s jockey on board last month. As for a price horse in here #8 It’s Aine looks very interesting at 8-1. Shw races on turf for the frist time today after a second 2 back and a 4th in her last, losing by only half a length. She could surprise these today.
We last race or the first race have been our downfall in our numerous 3 out of 4 pick 4 of late. Today we get a 5 1/2 furlong sprint to end the sequence. The morning line favorite is #8 Really A Princess (maybe a late double too for my sister with It’s Aine). She was 3rd in her last and second at this distance December 12 when she was bumped early. The favorite wins this race 40% of the time BUT 27% of the time there is a bomb 10-1 or more that wins! The only horse over 10-1 is #1 Lucky Mo who finished 11th in her debut at 74-1! How can I use this horse? Dropping and a fast 4 furlong work 2 weeks ago is a good enough excuse to take a flyer here. I am also going to use #7 Phoebe, a 1st time starter. A fast workout last week and her mammy has produced stakes winning quarter horses. A 5 Half furlong race is just a smidge more than that!
Good luck today!
Today’s Pick 4 bet will cost $36