Santa Anita 03-20-2015

03-20-2015

 

 

3/4 again baby! This time we correctly noted the 40% win rate of horses in race #6 priced over 10-1. Unfortunately it was a Baffert 14-1 shot and not ours that won. Explains why he scratched his favorite! We are getting so, so close!

 

 

In the first leg race #5 we have a few horses rising in class today. #4 My Sweet Addiction is not one of them. A sharp workout last week and blinkers come off for a trainer winning 36% with this strategy. #1 Intoxicating Move is a horse I like to bet and today she picks up leading jockey Bejarano and a nice 5-1 price. She is going up and class and trying dirt for only the second time. The favorite is #6 Taste Like Candy who has run second in her last 2 races, losing to Warrens Veneda in the last race and just ahead of Sweet Addiction. This race also is won by the favorite 44% of the time with a positive ROI.

 

 

#11 Danette for the Desormeaux brothers is a horse I like but so far have been disappointed with. She is the favorite so I will give her another shot if she can get in off the AE. Baffert sends out #4 Enchanted Fortune at 8-1 today (he scored with an outsider yesterday). She finished 3rd at this same distance in January and had a sharp workout last week. I will also use #10 Pure who ran second in her last race after bobbling at the start. #7 Cardini with Bejarano was bet to 3-1 in her debut where she finished 3rd. If Dannette does not make it in I will use #10 Pure who finished ahead of Cardini in their last race.

 

 

The downhill in race 7 brings us #10 Guggeheim who won despite a troubled trip in his last and is 2 for 2 on the hill. Moving up in class in a race that is won 46% of the time by horses 5-1 or higher (21% of time 10-1) he is a possible single for some but I will hunt for some value. #5 WeeWinnin had a sharp workout last week and is making his second start off a layoff and gives us 8-1. I am going to do a side ticket with some priced horses as well today and include #9 Indexical. Away since October he owns a win in his only try here last May. #3 Sofast has early speed and is shortening up today. His race last month was his first in since July 2013.

 

 

The final race is a 5 furlong affair that we don’t see too often at Santa Anita. A second and three 3rds for #3 Ruby N Diamonds who is “shortening up” may be the key for this speed horse. #10 Mudge is another off a long layoff but his trainer is 4 for 5 in the last 2 weeks.

 

Good luck today!

 

Today’s Pick 4 bet will cost $36

1,4,6

4,7,10 (11 if in off AE)

3,5,9,10

3,10

 

A bet keying on outsiders in race #7 costs $7

6

10

3,5,6,7,8,9,10

3,10