The frustration continued with another in a long line of 3 out of 4 days for us on Sunday. We yet again got a great price when Irish horse 12-1 Hoop of Colour romped home to victory in the 2nd leg. I had the 1st, 2nd and 3rd favorite in the final race and of course we came in second. Our price horses are coming in a lot lately! A wee bit of luck and a nice pay day awaits us.
In the first leg a red hot jockey and trainer hook up, Bejarano and Baltas on #2 Wicked Heat. #10 Tigah is on the AE list and if he makes it in he will be the likely favorite. Dropping after a 2nd in a troubled trip Tigah has been a popular horse at the claiming box in the last 6 months (5 claims). His new trainer has a 25% 1st off claim win rate. #3 Indian Nate posted a bullet workout last week. He drops in class and removes blinkers, a move this trainer wins 36% of the time with. If Tigah does not make it in I will use #4 Ezio. He is dropping after a win in his last at $32k BUT this is the level his connections claimed him from. They’ve made their money and dropping for another score?
Baffert/Garcia team up on #7 Wolf Man Rocket who has 2 seconds from his two starts. Baffert has done well stretching out horses like this lately. This race is won by horses 10-1 or higher 32% of the time. The favorite wins 40% of the time. It will be a bomb or a fav here today. The price horse I am going to use is #1 Bold Papa who’s dam is 4 for 4 with starters. A sharp workout Sunday adds to the appeal here. #2 Smart Transition is the morning line favorite although I believe Wolf will be post time fav. He stretches out off a second in his debut. He was second in a troubled trip in that race. I like #4 Just Kidding, Smith rides on the cut back in distance.
#5 Chati’s On Top is the favorite in race #7 with Bejarano now riding so I will use. She has been so close second in her last 2 and 2 thirds prior. #6 Tale of Papa Nick beat us last month. I had bet all her races prior so when I didn’t use her for the 1st time she romped to victory. She stretches out today so will have to ration the speed to win again. The question with #8 Tangelo is does she have what it takes to win. She looked good in her last but got swallowed in the stretch. She may be a filly who is just camera shy. #7 Heat the Rocks picks up Smith for a 29% beaten favorite trainer. Both are ones you could use but I am going to go with #4 Susan B Good. Desormeaux jumps back on. He won with Susan at this distance the last time he rode her. We get a great price of 10-1 for a ran won 21% of the time with a horse 10-1 or less.
The tepid favorite in the last is #6 Blame It On Tekela who posted a sharp workout last week after a third in his last race. As for the rest tough. #2 Josie Hit A Homer is a dropper with a jockey who’s hot over the last week. O’Neill is a 18% winner dropping to this level. I will also use #5 Midnight City who was second in his debut.
Good luck today!
Today’s Pick 4 bet will cost $40.50
2,3,10 (4 if 10 not in)
An alternative bet costs $6