Santa Anita 03-15-2015

03-15-2015

 

Well we had 3 out of 4 again yesterday losing again in the first leg with our horse coming in second. In the big race my plan to stick to Cal racers proved correct as favorite Warrens Veneda won. The last leg with its 48% winner of a price 5-1 or higher winning stat came to pass as well. As a consolation we did have our 1-2-3 choices finish in that order in race #7 for a very nice $91 payout on the $6 trifecta box as well a $34 payout on a $2.40 superfecta box. Still, the Pick 4 is where its at – lets see if we can make it today!

 

 

In the 1st leg #8 Erte is a late runner who has posted a win with today’s jockey Trujillo in January and a 2nd last month in a troubled trip. Trujillo raced the morning line favorite in her last #5 Desert Thief. Thief posted a sharp workout last week for a 21% win off the claim trainer but there is a jockey downgrade and a rise in class. Definitely not a single candidate. Baffert and Garcia team up on #9 Ritzy Tags. They are 4 for 8 in the last two weeks. They either win or they finish way back! Baffert is winning 30% when his maiden wins her last race. A sharp workout two weeks ago adds to the appeal. A price horse in here is #2 Robo Girl who is 1 for 2 on dirt but has not raced in seven months. Today’s jockey rode her to that win here last April.

 

 

Race 8 brings us the Santa Ana Stakes, a Grade II that is hard to decide on paper. There is an invader from back east as well as horses rising in class. #3 Hoop Of Colour did something most Euro imports have been unable to do over the last year – win first out! That was at a mile and quarter so despite rising in class today she also cuts back. Stevens on #4 Diversity Harbor is a must use here. He put in one of the best rides I have seen this year at Santa Anita yesterday and him and Proctor are looking like this they back in the day. Paddy Gallagher has been blanked so far at Santa Anita. Could Mike Smith give him his first victory today with #4 Queen of The Sand? Smith has ridden Sand to 3 wins 1 second from his 4 rides on her.

 

 

In race 8 Hess and Desormeaux team up on #6 Enduring Erin. What an apt name right before St. Paddy’s Day! She won her last in late December on turf and is switching to dirt today. She won her last race on dirt a year ago at Hawthorne. The favorite #7 Honey Ride finished second in her last race off a three month break and posted a sharp workout this week. While the favorite wins this race 32% of the time the winner 40% of the time is prices 5-1 or higher. My third choice here is #4 Marycasey who at 15-1 won her debut easy last out. She stretches out today and her trainer is 25% Maiden win last race.

 

 

Espinoza may try to make it a late double with #1 Boat Drinks in the final race on the Hillside course. 2nd in both her starts her trainer wins 22% when its a beaten favorite. #10 This Is War is a War Front filly so moving to the grass today is a good move after her second place finish last out on dirt. Also Stevens hops on here after riding #3 Avenge in all her races. Pay attention to what jockey Stevens does. Speaking of Avenge Mike Smith jumps on and both him and trainer Mandella are 2 for 3. You could use here but I am going to stick with Stevens. On the hillside course the threat is usually from off the pace in the stretch and that is #5 Redheads Rule forte. She was third in her last on the hill to two next out winners.

 

 

Good luck today!

 

Today’s Pick 4 bet will cost $40.50

5,8,9 (or use #2 for #9)

3,4,5

4,6,7

1,5,10