We snagged a huge bomb in yesterday’s sequence, Swissarella at 19-1 but came up short in the other leg. Hopefully some of you used that bomb to profit! Today’s Pick 4 sequence is not an easy one but there is a horse that looks like a single in the last leg, allowing for some extra spreads in other races.
As you all know I love the Irish and UK horses who run here in the States, especially first time starters, but it has been a miserable time for them over the last year. In the 1st leg today we have a couple who have been recent disappointments but I will still use one of them as she is dropping, the #1 Miss Ellany. Miss drops for today’s race from 40k to this $25k level, picks up Espinoza and gets the rail which is winning 22%. Sadler also wins 22% of the time when his horse was a beaten favorite. Hess and Desormeaux team up on #6 Love Blind who drops another level today. The favorite only wins this race 33% of the time. The favorite today is #3 Tribal Chatter with Bejarano on board and is also dropping today. A second in her last race off a 7 month rest I have to use but I am spreading too. My price horse here in a race that is won 18% of the time by a horse 10-1 or more is the #5 Loan Savant. She drops and ONeill is winning 19% off the claim and with this jockey O’Neill is 2 for 4 with a third as well in the last two weeks. Loan is a horse I liked a lot last summer at Del Mar and we get 12-1.
Race number 7 is a tough one with a few horses coming in off turf races and layoffs. #7 Short Heat Wave is a logical favorite in this leg. He ran second in his race off a 7 month break. An interesting price horse here is #1 Lidante who races on dirt for the first time. He posted a fast workout on Feb 22. He also turned in fast works Feb 3 and Jan 20 before each of his last races on turf. Could the move to dirt be the key? #2 Odin is rising in class perhaps prematurely off his last race win and is also stretching out but he did win with Desormeaux on board and he rides again. #5 Synnin has Bejarano on after a second place finish on turf in his last. Bejarano and O’Neill are also 2 for 3 in the last 2 weeks.
Race 7 brings us the Hillside slot machine course where anything can happen. If I do more than three horses in here the favorite will win! The morning line favorite is #5 Sweet Swap who has failed as the favorite in her last three and takes a drop to this level. A sharp workout last week may mean she is ready for business finally. Desormeaux hops back on #6 U S Citizen who he rode to two seconds on this hillside course this year. A sharp workout last week and a drop in class I will use. If Bejarano was not riding #8 County Lineman we would get a much better price, not that 6-1 is bad! County has not raced in 8 months but posted two thirds on this course. My price horse in here is #4 Spring Up who also has not raced in 7 months. She drops in class and posted a fast workout 2 weeks ago. Her first workout since her July race was Jan 10 and it was a bullet. A potential sleeper in this race.
In the last leg the 6/5 morning line favorite is #1 D’Church who finished second in his debut 9 lengths clear of third. He shortens up from that 6 1/2 distance today. Gate to wire from the inside post? Church posted a sharp workout before that last race he finished second in and he again posted another sharp workout last week.
Good luck to us today!
Today’s Pick 4 bet will cost $32