Yesterday was a day that on paper looked like it would be a favorites day. Unfortunately, for that to happen, the jockeys need to have their head in the game and that was not the case yesterday. We saw horrid rides from both Espinoza and Smith on horses that should have easily won their races. With that in mind remember the next time Tigah and My Sweet Addiction race that they were good enough to win yesterday.
The $500k Guaranteed Pick 4 begins in race #6 today. We have been knocked out of the first leg in the last 3 days of racing and today’s is no easy matter with a few possibilities. Santa Anita continues to have a droppers bias and with that in mind I’m looking to #8 Lady Asano who was claimed for $40k last out and now races for $32k. #2 Dissension with Talamo riding was 4th in her last race that has since seen three next out winners making her a must consider horse in this field. I’m also going to use the #1 Nazareth at a price with Espinoza riding. I’m still annoyed at the rides Espinoza turned in yesterday on 2 favorites but when good jockeys have bad days they usually bounce back quick and I am hoping for that today at a price. The inside post is winning 23% right now. Nazareth is dropping, Palma is winning at a 30% clip and this horse has speed. If you want more of a spread you could consider #4 Tebowing who is also dropping today.
In race #7 Sayes So is a legit morning line favorite. She won her debt, finished 2nd and in her last race, hampered by the inside post she finished 3rd. #2 Pica looks interesting here. A strong second in her last and now racing protected in the race in a sign of confidence by Miller, today could be her day. I want to go bigger in the next race so will stick with these two here.
Race 8 on the downhill course brings us a handful of horses in a smaller than normal field who excel here. #4 Betty’s Bambino is 4 for 5 here. Ambitious Brew #6 is 3 of 4. #2 Boozer has 2 wins, 2 seconds and a 3rd on the hill. These are also the 1-3 morning line choices. We could delve in some more here and make an argument for #8 Pathway To Yes who is coming off an eight month layoff with a 2 for 2 record on the hill and an 8-1 price. Even the #1 Patriots Rule at 10-1 has a shot here. After all it is the downhill course! Patriots also has a strong closing kick and how many downhill races have we seen won from the sky this year! That’s 6 horses I’ve outlined with a chance in an 8 horse field. So how do we get the fav to win this race? Do All!
In the last leg there is an obvious single in #12 Gimme Da Lute from the Baffert/Garcia tandem who are finally heating up. He was just nipped in his debut in a very strong effort that was followed by fast workout last week. Blinkers off, out side post – his to win. For extra coverage if you are iffy on the single you can consider the #4 Howdy who has posted two impressive seconds from 2 races and also had a fast workout on Feb 7.
This ticket with extra spreadage (it should be a word!) will cost $48
A cheaper ticket has us singling#12 in the last for $24.
Good luck today!