So we NAIL it in the first leg with a 16-1 1st time starter winning but alas the 1/2 favorite in leg 2 loses by a head and the even money favorite who was 50 miles back in the stretch romps in the final few feet to lose by a nose. Hopefully some of you made some nice coin using Royalist in race #5. With all the rain in So. Cal over the last few hours it is likely the turf races move to dirt but for us that does not matter as all the races are already on dirt! Let us see if we can get our share of today’s $500k guarantee.
In the first leg Baffert sends out three horses, one with his main rider Garcia on board, the #4 Wabel, #2 The Man with Bejarano on and #1 Nob Hill with Espinoza. Both #2 and #4 are racing a route for the first time and both have disappointed in their first two races. Wabel has a second and a third and The Man has two seconds. Nob Hill finished 2nd in his last race against Cyrus Alexander who disappointed as odds on favorite last time and the #1 post is tough at this distance. Usually when Baffert sends out two horses you have to use both not knowing who is the live horse but three? Dare we use all three that have been so-so thus far? I wont’ and will stick to #2 and #4. As I said yesterday the first leg of the pick 4 has been throwing off monsters lately including our 16-1 selection yesterday. This race is won 29% of the time by horses 10-1 or higher. That makes #6 Book Thirty Four at 20-1 morning line very interesting. A fast workout last week and moving up from the claiming ranks to straight maiden makes me wonder does trainer O’Neill see something here?
Its Baffert day today it seems as he sends out #7 Luminance in race #7. She won nicely at Del Mar in July and has been on the sidelines since but there is a lot of buzz on this horse. Singling here is not a crazy idea but I will stick to my usually 3X3. I will use #8 Wild At Heart who followed a second place debut with a win at 7 furlongs with gas in the tank. Moving up in class for a trainer who wins 25% going from a sprint to a route. I also like the #2 All Star Bud. Bejarano jumps back on after riding her to a third in January and a 1st in October. Some sharp workouts this month as well add to the appeal along with the 8-1 morning line! Also the horse she finished third to last month is racing in the Grade III next race, Rattataptap.
Race #8 brings another Baffert favorite the #3 Enchanting Lady who won her last in June at 5 1/2 furlongs and now stretches out after the 8 month layoff. 1st time at a route but Baffert wins 29% doing this. Bejarano and Bonde team up on #7 Rattataptap Bejarano is on fire over the last week and Bonde is whining 35% of his races. 1st time at a route should not matter. I will also use the #6 Light the City with Desormeaux riding for Jerry. She is dropping from Grade I to this Grade III after running second.
The morning line favorite in race #9, a 5 half furlong sprint for maidens, is the #4 Sweet Sense. Beaten favorite in her last two starts she drops two classes and shortens up. Puype is winning 71% dropping two or more classes and Sweet is a front runner. I could not argue against anyone trying to single this horse here but I’m hesitant despite the overwhelming stats! #13 Dulcemia finished second on Feb 14 after an 8 month layoff. Before going on the shelf she has run 2nd twice in a row. If she gets in off the AE I will use. #6 Warrensdollarsigns romped early in her last race at 7 furlongs in her best race to date indicating perhaps she is ready to win. Today’s 5 1/2 distance may end up being perfect for her. If #13 Dulcemia does not make it in we will use the #1 Ruby N Diamonds who has three thirds in a row. The inside post does not help though.
Good luck to us today!
Today’s Pick 4 bet will cost $40.50
4,6,13 (#1 if #13 non runner)