Santa Anita 02-15-2015

02-15-2015

 

 

What a heartbreaker yesterday in the final leg with both our Pick 4 tickets alive, one with the even money favorite as a single and the other ticket with three long shots. The payout on the favorite winning was $110 but on our #12 outsider it was $383. Unfortunately the Irish horse curse continued with none winning and our Pick 4 collection hopes disappearing again! My suspicion that the class hike for Bobbi Grace being a risk came to pass – Santa Anita is a dropper friendly track this season and very hard on those horses jumping up. We have another $500k guarantee again today so let’s see if we can get a piece of it. To say we are due is an understatement!

 

 

The 1st leg in race #6 is on the downhill course. # 4 Gouyen, a comebacker, is the morning line favorite with fast workouts in preparation for this race being reported. She is fast but the downhill lately has been a course where fast gets caught on the line by late runners. #12 Onedewoman is a fly from behind filly who could be the one that steals this today. Lately the downhill course is also being won by 1st-4th choices. #2 Kiss My Face is a first time starter who is getting a lot of positive chatter. Prat has been riding her in the morning and that is usually a good sign.

 

 

In race #7 I like the #5 American Act and #9 Aperfectdaytofly. American had a horrid trip in his last and was still able to battle back. He races a distance that is biased to his type of speed right now. #9 Fly is 2 of 3 BUT he is moving up in class and stuck outside. #4 Jackson Sundown is on the other hand dropping for today’s race and picks up leading rider Bejarano who rode the last win and the trainer has a 19% turf to dirt win rate. #7 Rainbow North is the morning line favorite off his big victory here last month but he too is moving up. Will the class risers take this race or the droppers?

 

 

We move back to the downhill course for race #8 and #2 Bench Warrant, who won here last month, is also dropping making him a must use. He also is a come from behind runner that do well on this course. If you wanted a single for the Pick 4 sequence this would be the logical choice. However, I am going to use #5 Pain And Misery. Yes it goes against my in-state bias and yes it is first time on turf but he did debut at Del Mar and finish 3rd. He is also 2 for 2 including a stakes race and gives us a decent price if #2 Bench does not fire. If you want another in this race the #1 Diamond Majesty looks intriguing. A fast workout this week and he ran 3rd behind Bench and Jazzy Josh in here last month. Bejarano hops on too plus the 6-1 morning line price does not hurt!

 

 

In the final leg, a 5.5 furlong sprint, #5 Gold Journey makes sense as the favorite. Second in October and in her last race in November she finished fourth behind 3 next out winners. #8 Bert’s Baby finished 3rd at this distance in her debut and is dropping today versus rising in class like the #1 whom she beat in that race in October.

 

 

 

Today’s bet will cost $27

2,4,12

4,5,9

1,2,5

5,8

 

 

Good luck today!