Sorry for the late update today as I just got back in town from The Sunshine Millions Wine Festival yesterday at Santa Anita. It was fun but alas, despite the aid of some great beer and wine, we were down in the 1st leg. Today is no easy sequence but if we can connect a very nice payoff is doable with the $500k guarantee.
Race 6 begins the Pick 4 and its a mile affair on turf. The morning line favorite #10 Prize Exhibit has changed barns and picks up Mike Smith after coming in 4th in her US debut at the Breeders Cup. The one issue here is Smith has a habit in races like this to let his horse stray far back and then zoom late. Hopefully not too far this time! #9 Belle Et Bete is a second time Irish starter who broke badly in her debut but finished strong. A clean break today and she can win at a good price.
In the #7 the #13, A Perfect Day To Fly looked great in his previous starts before misfiring in his last. He takes a big drop and that could be the key to a victory at a price, currently 6-1. The morning line favorite is the #8 El Vaguro who has been off since his last win back in September. Good recent works and has finished in the money all three starts and dropping. A potential single but I’m good to spread and hope we get a price win here! The #12 Kozani is an interesting horse here. He finished 3rd in his last behind Magno Warrior who has since won. For a price #5 Alpine Gathering the #5, an invader from Golden Gate looks interesting as a bomber at a price. I like the name (where I live and don’t laugh sometimes silly names when they have good back form is enough!) and this horse has been in the mix in all his races.
The 8th race brings us the downhill course and #4 Mr. Commons who is 1 for 1 on this course and the trainer/jockey combo are 2 for 3. #8 Hay Dude is a horse I like. He has 4 wins on this course and my man Desormeaux on board. He finished 2nd by a half-length in his last here 3 weeks ago. He is cutting back in distance and is a run from behind type, great on the hillside course! The tepid morning line favorite is the #5 Sweet Swap with Talamo on board who won with Swap both times on the hillside last year.
In the final leg we have a legit favorite, the #8 Nevada Time. He finished 2nd in his last after dropping when he had a VERY bad trip. Bad, bad trip and still finished 2nd says a lot. I am also going to use the #7 Surfer Moon who had a very fast workout last week after a third in his last. In the money 50% of the time perhaps today is the day at a price if #8 falters.
Today’s bet will cost $24
Good luck today!